Hurricane Fiona 2010

Hurricane Earl intensified this afternoon and became a category 4 cyclone. In short, this system is big and powerful. It is tracking through minimal wind shear and very warm sea surface temperatures which will likely see it intensify even further over the next 48 hours. It is still tracking slightly north of west at about 13 knots (24 kmh/15 mph).


While the storm is still expected to recurve northward, its continued forward speed to the west has shifted the forecast track somewhat west. This brings the forecast even closer to the US eastern seaboard and should give Nova Scotia some moment of pause. While it is still far too early to forecast a landfall, most models have this cyclone reaching as far west as Maine or as far east as seaward of Nova Scotia as a possible category 2 hurricane.


Invest 97L was upgraded to a tropical storm and is now TS Fiona with rain bands starting to appear in wind fields of about 35 knots. Whether Fiona intensifies or not is difficult to say. It is tracking almost due west at 21 knots (39 kmh/24 mph) which means it is moving closer to Earl.



I know the immediate response to this is to expect that the two cyclones will merge to form an even bigger storm, however, that's not what happens. Earl is generating strong upper outflow winds which will create strong wind shear in Fiona's path. With that happening, and with Earl robbing Fiona of moist air, there is a fairly decent chance that Fiona will lose its energy and dissipate. If... it keeps moving at its current speed. If it slows down Fiona could become a whole different story.

read more

Hurricane Earl Path Video

Hurricane Earl is set on a path for the U.S., currently projected to head up north to lower New England  and potentially could maintain its hurricane strength while doing so. As someone who has experienced major hurricanes firsthand--I experienced the eye of Hurricane Andrew in Miami in 1992, and the pre-New Orleans effects of Hurricane Katrina--I have seen how difficult hurricanes can be. The emotional and physical damage is real (during Andrew, we lost all of our shingles, our roof caved in, our porch blew away, and I wound up a traumatized elementary school kid).


    * ·  Hurricane Earl Path Could Cause Real-And Financial-Destruction
    * ·  Custard, Salsa, Throw It On The Grill: Corn Is Cheap And Healthy
    * ·  Waste Time, Waste Money: How Much Does Procrastination Cost?

Without minimizing the crouching-in-a-bathtub-while-your-house-pirouettes-around-you effect, it's important to remember how expensive storm damage can be, and how helpful it is to take preventive measures. Even though Earl doesn't look like it's going to pull any category 5 wizardry on the Northeast, consider Katrina's effect on my childhood home: It was only category 1 or 2 when it hit, but our roof leaked so terribly that we had to use our generator to run the dryer in order to produce more towels to stop up the water--we'd used every single towel in the house. The same thing happened to all our neighbors, because all of our roofs were exactly 13 years old, since they'd all last been replaced after Andrew. Preventive measures like customized shutters are extremely expensive, but, after the stories I've heard, I wouldn't put my trust in ply board.

Bottom line: Prevention is expensive, but cleanup is even more expensive. The Northeast isn't used to hurricanes, but if you're looking for someone to tell you about stocking up on bottled water, just ask the Miami girl in me.

read more